THE SPORTS ADVISORS
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Atlanta)
(22) Florida State (25-8, 18-8-1 ATS) vs. (9) Duke (26-6, 15-15-1 ATS)
Florida State advanced to its first ever ACC tournament championship game by upsetting top-seeded and No. 1-ranked North Carolina 73-70 as a nine-point underdog at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. Toney Douglas had a game-high 27 points for the Seminoles, who shot 49 percent from the field and held the Tar Heels to 37.3 percent. Florida State snapped an 11-game losing skid to North Carolina and ended the Tar Heels’ two-year reign as tournament champs.
One day after barely staving off elimination with a 66-65 quarterfinals victory over Boston College as a 10-point chalk, Duke knocked out Maryland on Saturday, prevailing 67-61 but once again coming up short against the number, this time as a nine-point favorite. The Blue Devils advanced to the tourney championship game for the first time since winning the title in 2006 despite shooting just 36.4 percent overall, but they made 9 of 22 shots from the three-point arc (41 percent).
Prior to shocking North Carolina, the Seminoles eliminated Georgia Tech 64-62 in the semifinals, failing to cover as a five-point favorite. They’ve won three in a row and nine of their last 12, and they’re on a 13-5-1 ATS roll. Meanwhile, Duke has won seven of its last eight games – the only defeat coming a week ago today at North Carolina (79-71) – but it has followed up a three-game ATS winning streak by going 1-3 ATS in its last four (0-3 ATS as a favorite).
Duke swept the season series from Florida State, but the ‘Noles got the cash both times. The Blue Devils prevailed 66-58 in Tallahassee as a 9½-point favorite on Jan. 10, then barely held off the Seminoles at home two weeks ago, eking out an 84-81 win as a 12½-point chalk. Duke has won three in a row and eight of the last 10 in this rivalry, but Florida State has cashed eight times during this stretch, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, all from the underdog role.
The Seminoles carry a slew of positive ATS streaks into the championship game, including 22-9-2 overall, 6-1 at neutral sites, 16-5-2 in ACC action, 19-7-2 against winning teams and 15-4-1 as an underdog. Duke is on ATS slides of 10-22 at neutral venues and 1-5 the ACC tourney.
The under has been the play in 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, though the clash earlier this month at Duke went over the total. Additionally, the under for Florida State is on stretches of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 14-4-2 at neutral sites, 20-7-1 on Sunday and 10-2 against winning teams. Finally, Duke sports “under” streaks of 26-11 overall (5-1 last six), 17-5 in ACC play, 10-1 at neutral venues and 5-2 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Ohio State (22-9, 16-11 ATS) vs. (24) Purdue (23-9, 13-15 ATS)
Ohio State dominated top-seeded and seventh-ranked Michigan State in Saturday’s Big Ten tournament semifinals, rolling to an 82-70 victory as an eight-point underdog at Conseco Fieldhouse to reach the league championship game for the second time in three years. The Buckeyes shot a blistering 53.2 percent from the field, including making 9 of 16 three-point tries, and held Michigan State to 38 percent shooting (3-for-21 from long range) as they won their fourth in a row (3-1 ATS).
Purdue followed up Friday’s 79-65 rout of Penn State as an eight-point favorite with Saturday’s 66-56 win over Illinois as a 3½-point chalk. The Boilermakers, who led 37-17 at halftime, got 20 points from JaJuan Johnson and 19 from Robbie Hummel to make it to the title game for the first time in 11 years. Purdue’s two wins and covers in Indianapolis come on the heels of a 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS slump
These teams split their season series, with the host winning each contest. The Buckeyes needed overtime for an 80-72 victory as a two-point home ‘dog, but Purdue got revenge in a big way three weeks later, rolling 75-50 as a 9½-point chalk. Ohio State is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes, including a 63-52 rout as a 6½-point favorite in the 2007 Big Ten tournament.
Ohio State, which won the tournament championship behind then-freshman Greg Oden in 2007, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in this event. Also, the Buckeyes, who won last year’s NIT, have won and covered seven straight postseason games, including Friday’s 61-57 upset victory over Wisconsin as a three-point ‘dog in the quarterfinals, and they’re on additional pointspread runs of 9-4 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 5-0 at neutral sites. However, OSU has failed to cash in seven of its last eight on Sunday.
Purdue, which had advanced past the first round of the Big Ten tournament just once in seven years prior to this season, is 4-5 ATS in its last nine tourney games and 3-5 ATS in its last eight at neutral sites.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Ohio State overall (all in the Big Ten), 16-5 for Ohio State on Sunday, 5-1 for Purdue on Sunday and 4-1 in this rivalry. However, the Boilermakers have topped the total in both of their tournament games this weekend, making the over 7-1 in their last eight on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Tampa, Fla.)
Mississippi State (22-12, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee (20-11, 13-15-1 ATS)
Mississippi State knocked off SEC regular-season champion LSU 67-57 in Saturday’s tournament semifinals, prevailing as a four-point underdog to earn their first berth in the finals since 2003. The Bulldogs have won and covered five in a row and kept their postseason hopes alive despite making just 33 percent of their shots against the Tigers, including missing 13 of 16 tries from beyond the three-point line. However, Mississippi State held LSU to just 31 percent shooting and it went 24-for-35 from the foul line, while its opponent was 9-for-13 on free throws.
Tennessee routed Auburn 94-85 in Saturday’s other semifinal matchup, cashing as a 4½-point favorite just one day after pummeling Alabama 88-62 as an eight-point chalk. The Volunteers, who have reached the title game for the first time in 18 years, shot 62 percent from the field and 58 percent from beyond the arc in crushing Auburn. The Vols have won five of their last six, and they’ve followed an 0-3 ATS stretch by cashing in four of their last five.
These teams faced off on Feb. 25 in Knoxville, Tenn., and the Vols scored an 81-76 victory but failed to cover as a nine-point home favorite. Tennessee has won five in a row in this series (4-1 ATS).
Prior to this weekend, Mississippi State had been in a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS slump in the SEC tournament since losing to Kentucky in 2003 finals. In addition to knocking off LSU yesterday, the Bulldogs beat Georgia 79-60 as a nine-point favorite Thursday and routed South Carolina 82-68 as a 2½-point pup Friday.
In addition to cashing in its last five games, Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at neutral sites and 4-0 ATS in its last four against winning teams. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last five at neutral sites, but 3-6 ATS in its last nine SEC tourney tilts. Also, the Vols haven’t covered in three straight games all season.
Tennessee entered this tournament on a 12-3 “under” streak (11-3 in SEC play), but it has topped the total in its two games this weekend. Mississippi State is on “over” runs of 8-3-1 overall (all in SEC action), 5-0 on Sunday and 23-9-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Dallas (40-26, 32-34 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (52-13, 34-31 ATS)
After two days off, the Lakers will try to complete a Texas trifecta when they host the Mavericks inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles scored back-to-back wins and covers in Texas last week, winning at Houston 102-96 as a 3½-point ‘dog Wednesday and then getting a 102-95 victory in San Antonio the following night as a three-point pup. The Lakers are 29-4 at home this season, but just 16-17 ATS.
The Mavericks had their three-game winning streak snapped Friday night in Oakland when they fell to Golden State 119-110 as a 1½-point favorite. The 119 points was the most Dallas has allowed since Jan. 25 when it got smoked in Boston 124-100 as a nine-point pup.
The Lakers have dominated this rivalry lately, winning five straight (2-3 ATS), including both meetings this season. On Nov. 11, Los Angeles got a 106-99 win in Dallas as a 5½-point chalk and then scored a 114-107 home win on Nov. 28 but came up short as a 10½-point favorite. The visitor is on a 6-0-1 ATS run in this series, and the Mavs have gotten the cash in their last four visits to the Staples Center.
Dallas is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight roadies overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a pup, but it is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in its last five against Pacific Division squads. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 after getting two days off and 6-2 against Southwest Division teams.
The Mavs have topped the total in seven of 10 overall, but otherwise it’s been all “unders” for Dallas, including 7-2 on the road, 17-6 on Sundays and 7-1 as an underdog. For Los Angeles, the under is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 on Sundays and 4-0 at home against teams with losing road records. However in this rivalry, the over is 5-1 in the last six clashes overall and 6-2 in the last eight in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Utah (41-25, 35-31 ATS) at Orlando (48-17, 41-23-1 ATS)
The Jazz don’t have much time to recover after a triple-overtime loss in Miami Saturday, heading up the Florida coast to Amway Arena in Orlando to take on the Magic.
Utah has followed up a 12-game winning streak (9-3 ATS) with back-to-back SU and ATS setbacks, including Saturday’s heartbreaking 140-129 setback in Miami in three overtimes, failing as a two-point chalk. Including Wednesday’s 100-93 loss in Atlanta as a 1½-point underdog, the Jazz are just 13-19 SU (15-17 ATS) on the highway this season.
Orlando has won six of seven overall (5-2 ATS), most recently knocking off Washington 112-103 Friday, getting the cash as a 7½-point favorite. The Magic have been tough defensively, allowing just 92.2 points a game over the last five, and they surrender just 91.8 ppg at home this season.
The Magic are 9-1-1 ATS in this series dating back to 2004 and they scored a 103-94 victory in Utah on Dec. 13, pulling off the upset as a 7½-point underdogs However, last season in Orlando, the Jazz prevailed 113-94 as four-point underdogs. The pup has cashed in five straight meetings, with the visitor getting the money in four of those five. Finally, prior to last year, the Magic had covered four straight against Utah at Amway Arena.
Utah is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 overall and 4-2 in its last six on the road, but the Jazz are on ATS slides of 2-5 against the Southeast Division, 2-5 on the second night of a back-to-back and 2-7 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Orlando is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 35-16 overall, 20-6 against the Western Conference, 5-0 on Sundays, 6-1 after one day off and 4-1 against Northwest Division teams.
For the Jazz, the under is 6-2 in their last seven overall, 4-1 in their last five on Sunday and 4-2 in their last six against teams from the Eastern Conference, but the over has been the play in seven of their last 10 on the second day of a back-to-back. Orlando is on “under” streaks of 15-7 at home, 5-2 against Western Conference teams and 4-1 against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five matchups in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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